The Economist (20150221) by calibre

Author:calibre [calibre]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: news, The Economist
Publisher: calibre
Published: 2015-02-19T18:21:50.541000+00:00

German politics

Defeat on the Elbe

An election in Hamburg underlines the domestic weakness of Angela Merkel

Feb 21st 2015 | BERLIN | From the print edition

All must have prizes

THE German chancellor, Angela Merkel, may be the West’s de facto leader in the Ukraine crisis, a quasi-hegemon in the European Union and unassailably popular in opinion polls. But her centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has growing weaknesses, as Hamburg, one of Germany’s 16 federal states, showed on February 15th.

The CDU was the big loser in a regional election that had several winners. The Social Democrats (SPD), led by a colourless but reliable mayor, Olaf Scholz, triumphed with 45.7% of the vote and will stay in power, probably with the Greens. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a Eurosceptic party founded in 2013, got into its first assembly in west Germany after breaking into three eastern parliaments. Even the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) returned, with 7.4%.

The kingmaker of German governments for much of post-war history, the FDP has of late seemed moribund, ejected from the federal and several state parliaments. A cranky Green politician, Jörg Rupp, tweeted that the FDP succeeded “with tits and legs instead of content”, intended as a swipe at the party’s leading candidate, Katja Suding. He had to apologise. It remains to be seen if the FDP will now revive elsewhere.

The big shock, though, was how badly the CDU did. The party fell from 21.9% in 2011 to 15.9%, its worst-ever result in Hamburg. It lost roughly 9,000 pro-business and liberal voters to the FDP; 8,000 conservatives to the AfD; and another 8,000 to the SPD. It was a “hammering”, said one senior Christian Democrat. Mrs Merkel called it “bitter”. The CDU now runs none of Germany’s ten largest cities. This is causing internal debates about whether it is too country-bumpkin and should adopt an “urban” strategy. The CDU also has only four state premiers out of 16, and is thus in a minority in the upper-house Bundesrat.

Mrs Merkel must carry much blame for the party’s local and regional weakness. She has not allowed any talented backbenchers or regional politicians to shine. As part of her strategy to modernise the CDU, she has for years moved gradually leftward. Voters often say they cannot tell the CDU and SPD apart. So CDU supporters leaning left are drawn to the real thing, while those leaning right or liberal look to the AfD or FDP.

The centre of German politics has become crowded, and the alternatives on the right clearer. This will increasingly constrain Mrs Merkel as she approaches the next federal election in 2017. And what will happen to her party after she goes is now anybody’s guess.

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